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21 December 2024

• SBNation Reacts results: Fans won’t view season as failure if Seahawks miss playoffs

  Fans feel confident in the direction of the Mike Macdonald-led Seahawks.

  Welcome to SB Nation Reacts, a survey of fans across the NFL. Each week we ask questions of the most plugged-inSeattle Seahawks fans and fans across the country.

  The Seattle Seahawks are coming off a demoralizing prime time loss to the Green Bay Packers last week. Despite this loss, 78% of Seahawks fans still remain confident the team is headed in the right direction. With the loss to the Packers, the Seahawks are safely in “must win” mode for the rest of the 2024 season. Knowing this, Seahawk fans may be looking at the team from a big picture perspective and feel that Mike Macdonald is leading the team in the right direction.

  When looking into the immediate future, Seahawks fans confidence wanes. 71% of Seahawks fans think the Minnesota Vikings will defeat the Seahawks. Of that group, 37% think the game will be closer than not, believing that the Vikings will win by 1-8 points. This is not the most surprising result. The Vikings are one of the best teams in the NFL and are tied for first in the NFC at 12-2 with the Detroit Lions and Philadelphia Eagles, and still have a very clear shot at the number one seed. After the primetime blowout to the Packers last week, it is not surprising that the more even more formidable Vikings will be a tall task to beat this upcoming Sunday.

  If the Seahawks lose this upcoming Sunday, their playoff hopes become even more difficult, and nearly gone completely.

  However, even if the Seahawks miss the playoffs, 56% of Seahawks fans will not view the 2024 season as a failure. Much of this may be due to Mike Macdonald being in his first year as head coach. Currently the Seahawks are 8-6, only one-win shy of at least matching 2023’s 9-8 finish. Even if Seattle were to lose out and go 8-9, Macdonald would still be able to hang his hat on turning around a struggling defense and maintaining the Seahawks culture that Pete Carroll helped implement throughout the 2010s. Meanwhile 25% of Seahawks fans believe the 2024 season will come down to how the team finishes. Surely if the Seahawks do lose out and 8-9, much of the 56% above may feel differently, especially if the defense takes a step back, or if Geno Smith and the offense continue to struggle (especially in the Red Zone.)

  As mentioned above, regardless of how the Seahawks finish, and how the 2024 Seahawks will be viewed, the vast majority of Seahawks fans (78%) are confident Mike Macdonald has the team moving in the right direction.

  Check outFanDuel, the officialsportsbook partner of SB Nation.

• Pre-Snap Reads 12/21: Seahawks prepare for most important game of the season (up to this point)

  Read!

  In Today’s Links: maybe one or two more bitter pills yet to be swallowed in honor of last Sunday’s loss to the Packers, predictions for our Seattle Seahawks’ big game against the Vikings this Sunday, game previews, questions on the run game, possible solutions for our squad, et al. Dive in, get educated, towel off, get back in. The links are here for you.

  #np Watermelon Man by Herbie Hancock and the Headhunters

  Seahawks News

  Seahawks OL looking lost against Packers for 16 minutes - Seaside Joe
  The Seahawks have to replace Laken Tomlinson

  Tyler Lockett can only play his reduced Seahawks role--and ‘just hope the ball finds me’ - The News Tribune
  The 10th-year wide receiver takes a philosophical, team-first tone with the TNT to his recent string of low-output, low-use games.

  3 Bold Predictions for Seahawks defense vs. Vikings in Week 16 - Seahawks Wire
  The Seattle Seahawks' defense struggled in a Week 15 blowout defeat to the Green Bay Packers. Mike Macdonald's unit allowed the opposing quarterback to throw for 227 yards and two touchdowns while completing 20-of-27 passes. Seattle also racked up…

  Bump: The factors behind Seattle Seahawks' red-zone woes - Seattle Sports
  Michael Bumpus dives into the Seattle Seahawks' red-zone struggles and how they can improve in that area of the field.

  Stacy Rost's 3 keys for Seattle Seahawks vs Minnesota Vikings - Seattle Sports
  Stacy Rost breaks down the Seattle Seahawks' matchup for Sunday against the Minnesota Vikings with three things worth keeping in mind.

  Seahawks vs. Vikings Game Preview - 2024 Week 16 - Seahawks.com
  The Seahawks get set to host the Minnesota Vikings in a battle between two NFC playoff contenders. Seahawks reporter Jen Mueller breaks down everything you need to know about the Seahawks' regular season home finale.

  Did Seattle Seahawks OC Ryan Grubb Abandon Run Too Early vs. Green Bay Packers? - Sports Illustrated Seahawks News, Analysis, and More
  The Seattle Seahawks stopped running the ball with 10 minutes remaining against the Green Bay Packers. Was it too early to give up on the ground game?

  Vikings Stealing Seahawks Christmas? Minnesota at Seattle Game Preview - The Sea Hawkers Podcast
  The NFC North invades the PNW for a second week in a row and our Seattle Seahawks are looking for a much better outcome. These purple people eaters have different plans and come in with a 7 game winning streak.

  NFC West News

  3 numbers to know: Can the 49ers contain the Dolphins up and coming pass rush? - Niners Nation
  Taking a trip down memory lane to see how the 49ers have fared in their trips to Miami since 1995.

  One Area Where the 49ers Painfully Miss Trent Williams - Sports Illustrated 49ers News, Analysis, and More
  Being without Trent Williams has negatively impacted the 49ers the most in this specific area.

  Deep Dive: Don't Worry About Arizona Cardinals WR Marvin Harrison Jr. - Sports Illustrated Cardinals News, Analysis, and More
  Has the Arizona Cardinals stud's rookie season been a failure so far by comparison to his competition? What needs to change?

  Arizona Cardinals will be without two starters, two key backups in matchup with Carolina Panthers - Revenge of the Birds
  The injury report for the Arizona Cardinals is not what you want to see in a big game.

  Rams Keys to victory: Can L.A. avoid trap game in New York vs. Jets? - Turf Show Times
  Can Rams win fourth game in a row and avoid trap game vs. Jets in Week 16?

  The Race for the NFC West Title is Unlike Any Other - Sports Illustrated Rams News, Analysis, and More
  The NFC West has been a wild race this season. The Los Angeles Rams are on pace to win the NFC West and secure a home playoff game, but this season's race for the division title is different.

  Around The NFL

  Colts QB Anthony Richardson got his job back and the same issues persist. Now what? - Yahoo Sports
  RIchardson's play in Week 15 showed he still has a long way to go.

  Myles Garrett wants Browns to share plan for winning sooner than later - NBC Sports
  "I'm not trying to rebuild. I'm trying to win now."

  NFL Week 16 picks, schedule, odds, injuries, fantasy tips - ESPN
  Here's everything you need to know for Week 16 NFL games. Which teams will win, who are the X factors and which storylines matter most?

  Is Vikings' McCown a future OC, following Darnold's success? - ESPN
  McCown and Darnold once were Jets teammates. Now they're paired up as coach and QB with the 12-2 Vikings.

  Offseason wish list for NFL's nine eliminated teams: Bears need QB whisperer, Pats need QB protectors - NFL.com
  What's next for the nine NFL teams that have already been eliminated from playoff contention? Kevin Patra gets into the holiday spirit and identifies each downtrodden franchise's biggest offseason wish.

  Fantasy football: Ten players who'll out/underperform projections in NFL Week 16 - NFL.com
  Are expectations for Breece Hall and Najee Harris too high this week? Is Jonathan Taylor poised for a monster performance against Tennessee? Michelle Magdziuk and Matt Okada predict whether 10 noteworthy players will out/underperform their Week 16 fantasy

  Where will Sam Darnold play next? A Kirk Cousins trade? Setting stage for 2025 QB carousel - The Athletic
  Sam Darnold could be the top free agent available. Will Minnesota try to bring him back, or he is destined for a new team?

  Ranking 10 of the most important remaining NFL games that could shape the 2024 playoffs - CBSSports.com
  Which matchups are most pivotal to the postseason?

  PFF Grades and Data: Everything you need to know for every NFL Week 16 game - PFF
  Ahead of NFL Week 16, our media team has dived deep into the numbers to deliver key insights for every NFL matchup, highlighting the hidden storylines and standout performances that shape each game.

• NFL Week 16: Seahawks vs. Vikings complete game coverage

  The Seahawks (8-6) almost certainly need to win against the Vikings (12-2) in order to have a decent shot at winning the NFC West over the Rams.

  The Seattle Seahawks (8-6) are in virtual must-win territory entering Week 16. Unfortunately, one of the hottest teams in the NFL is rolling into Lumen Field in search of the NFC North title and the No. 1 seed in the conference.

  Kevin O’Connell’s Minnesota Vikings are 12-2, winners of seven straight, and boast a very good offense and a great defense that will likely give a struggling Seattle offense fits. Like the Seahawks with the Los Angeles Rams, the Vikings are tied for first in their division but don’t have a tiebreaker after losing at home to the Detroit Lions. However, Minnesota is already in the playoffs and the Seahawks are not. Sam Darnold is having the best year of his career, and it sure helps when he’s got a top set of receiving targets in Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, and T.J. Hockenson.

  This is the regular season home finale for the Seahawks, who are just 3-5 at Lumen Field this year. It’s been 16 years since their last six-loss season at home. Let’s see if they can end their home slate on a high note... and possibly earn another home game in January?

  Last meeting

  This is the first time the Seahawks have played the Vikings since 2021, when Kirk Cousins threw two touchdowns and the Vikings won 30-17 in Minneapolis. The last Seahawks vs. Vikings game at Lumen Field was a dramatic 27-26 comeback win for Seattle in the 2020 season.

  What’s at stake for the Seahawks?

  The Seahawks could be facing Week 17 playoff elimination if they lose and the Los Angeles Rams win against the New York Jets. On the flip side, a Seahawks win and a Rams loss could put Seattle in a potential clinching scenario.

  Seattle’s playoff chances are already slim as it is.

  Odds

  The Seahawks are a 3-point home underdogs on FanDuel Sportsbook, with an over/under of 42 points.

  Game Coverage

  Seahawks vs. Vikings airs live on FOX on Sunday, Dec. 22 at 1:05 pm PT. The commentary team will be Adam Amin and Mark Sanchez, with Kristina Pink as the sideline reporter This is the stream to follow for all of your Seahawks-Vikings game coverage.

• Seahawks announce Week 16 game captains vs. the Vikings

  Geno Smith, Zach Charbonnet, and Coby Bryant will serve as captains for Sunday’s game.

  The Seattle Seahawks have just released their list of Week 16 game captains for Sunday’s home contest versus the Minnesota Vikings.

  Seattle named quarterback Geno Smith, running back Zach Charbonnet, and cornerback Coby Bryant as captains for a pivotal matchup against the 12-2 Vikings, who have won seven in a row coming into this game.

  The Week 16 captains.
  
  ▫️ Geno Smith
  ▫️ Zach Charbonnet
  ▫️ Coby Bryant pic.twitter.com/bZ3vUYitSx

  — Seattle Seahawks (@Seahawks) December 20, 2024

  None of this week’s captains appear to have any ties to Minnesota. That being said, all three of them have been vital to the Seahawks’ success so far this season.

  Smith will be a captain for the first time since the Jets game in Week 13. Smith, who was initially thought to be out for this week after suffering a knee injury in last Sunday’s loss to the Packers, will be playing on Sunday. “I’m getting better every day. Looking forward to Sunday,” the 34-year-old quarterback said Thursday (via The News Tribune). Smith was 15-for-19 passing with an interception before exiting the game.

  Charbonnet will be making his debut as a captain on Sunday. He served as one of the few bright spots on Seattle’s offense, rushing for 54 yards and scoring the Seahawks’ only touchdown of the night. Charbonnet now leads all Seattle running backs in rushing touchdowns, scoring his eighth of the season in last week’s loss.

  Bryant will be a captain for the first time since the Rams loss in Week 9. He had another great game last week, recording eight tackles against Jordan Love and the Green Bay offense. Of those eight tackles, seven of them were solo tackles, Bryant’s most since Week 7 vs. the Atlanta Falcons. In total, Bryant has 38 solo tackles and 18 assists for 56 tackles across 14 games.

  The Seahawks take on the red-hot Vikings at Lumen Field at 1:05 PM PT.

• Seahawks have remarkably clean final injury report for Vikings game

  Only three Seahawks have been ruled out, one of whom isn’t even on the active roster right now.

  The final injury report is out for the Seattle Seahawks’ huge Week 16 home game against the Minnesota Vikings, and it couldn’t be much more positive for Seattle.

  Only tight end Brady Russell, outside linebacker Trevis Gipson, and safety K’Von Wallace (who’s still on IR, technically) have been ruled out for Sunday. No one else was even listed as questionable, much less doubtful. That means Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker III, Olu Oluwatimi, Zach Charbonnet, and others who have either missed time or popped up on the injury report following the Green Bay Packers game are all ready to play.

  Walker and Tre Brown have each missed the past couple of games due to their respective injuries but were full participants for the Friday practice. Brown has been relegated to special teams after cornerback Josh Jobe’s ascent into the starting lineup.

  On the flip side, the only absence of note for the Minnesota Vikings is defensive lineman Jalen Redmond, who’s out with a concussion. Cornerback Fabian Moreau is out with a hip injury but that’s mitigated by the return of veteran Stephon Gilmore.

  Here’s the final injury report with game designations for both teams:

• Why the Seahawks play action woes are more than just a lack of usage

  The Seahawks play action game is a mess under Ryan Grubb.

  The Seattle Seahawks offense is as bad as we’ve seen it in years under new offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb. Early optimism and hype following his days at the University of Washington have fizzled, and the stats are not pretty.

  Some Seahawks ranks, via @TruMediaSports
  
  Offense:
  points per drive -- 21st
  EPA per play -- 20th
  
  Defense:
  opponent points per drive -- 6th
  EPA per play -- 9th

  — Dugar, Michael-Shawn (@MikeDugar) December 17, 2024

  Among the themes of this season has been the seemingly bizarre lack of play action usage from Grubb, representing a complete departure from previous Seahawks offensive coordinators Darrell Bevell, Brian Schottenheimer, and Shane Waldron. According to NextGenStats, Smith ranks 33rd out of 34 quarterbacks in play-action rate. Smith has yet to attempt double-digit PA passes in a game under Grubb, a far cry from his usage under Waldron.

  It’s often parroted on broadcasts that you need to run the ball well to set up play-action passing. The Seahawks rank 29th in rush/EPA and 20th in yards/carry, but they’ve made some progress in recent weeks, particularly in the road win over the Arizona Cardinals. However, there is no supporting evidence of needing to have an effective run game to be good at play action.

  Here’s what Mike Macdonald had to say about the topic on Monday.

  “I stand on both sides of the argument,” he said. “I think it’s more based on the sets and the protections and the situations that dictate what defenses can do in some of those situations. We have a good play action pass game, probably should see more of it frankly. To a certain extent, the effectiveness of your run game affects play action game, especially if you get it really going. But those are good plays.”

  Keep in mind that line about “sets and the protections” because that’ll be relevant later in the article.

  The Seahawks aren’t good at play action

  The stats indicate the Seahawks not only use play action infrequently but use it poorly. Geno Smith ranks 27th in EPA/dropback on play action passes and his air yards/attempt is just 7.3. For perspective, last year Smith was 7th in EPA/dropback and his air yards/attempt was 8.5, and that’s even with a modest 21st ranking in PA usage. Let’s not pretend the 2023 Seahawks had a good offensive line or a good running game, either.

  Smith has been sacked eight times off of PA, which is fourth-most in the NFL behind Justin Herbert, Jayden Daniels, and Caleb Williams. However, Smith’s average time to throw on PA is 3.38 seconds, which is about the same as his TtT in 2023. His pressure rate is actually lower this season compared to last (36.9% vs. 40.5%)

  The Seahawks aren’t generating enough big plays off of play action

  Of Geno Smith’s 49 completed play action passes, only seven have resulted in 20+ yard gains. Compared that with 2023, when 21 of 84 PA throws went for at least 20 yards. Play action isn’t used primarily for generating big plays, but it’s proven that average air yards/attempt increase in PA compared to straight dropback.

  Even if you went straight to yards per attempt, Smith’s YPA is just 7.4, by far the worst of his Seahawks career and the lowest of any Seahawks QB dating back to 2015, when Russell Wilson had a higher YPA on non-play action than play action. Yes, the 2017 team was considerably more effective at blocking for and operating play action despite having an atrocious offensive line only boosted midseason by the Duane Brown acquisition.

  The Seahawks are too predictable in their play action passing

  “I think it’s more based on the sets and the protections.” - Mike Macdonald

  Running more play action in itself does not create a tendency breaker that will flummox defenses.

  Friend of the site and Seahawks film analyst Griff Sturgeon (cmikesspinmove on X) made this astute observation about Seattle’s PA game at the start of the month.

  one reason the #Seahawks are so bad at play action is because they play fake off of run actions they never use when it's an actual run. The LBs call bullshit and get into their drops before the QB and RB even mesh.
  
  batman begin

  — over zone y (@cmikesspinmove) December 3, 2024

  https://t.co/YvwdbawPzU
  
  44 is shuffling to the right, away from the run action, the 2nd the ball is snapped.
  
  He has his head turned to his pass responsibility before geno and walker mesh.
  
  They are tipping their plays all over the place.
  
  Forces Geno and JSN to be elite. pic.twitter.com/TLYjOSmfP2

  — over zone y (@cmikesspinmove) December 3, 2024

  To extrapolate a little more: When Seattle goes under center, it is an insanely predictable offense, which wouldn’t be bad if it was dominant in its predictability, but that’s not what we’re witnessing.

  Throughout the season, the Seahawks have predominantly run their under center play action fakes to the weak side of the formation. When they run the ball under center, it’s almost exclusively to the strong side.

  Here’s a cut-up of their UC PAs from the New York Jets game. Spot a pattern? It’s what’s been happening in all of the other games, too.

  pic.twitter.com/BOUvqs0DE6

  — Mookie Alexander (@mookiealexander) December 20, 2024

  I went back and watched all their UC behavior a couple of weeks ago and without exaggeration >90% of their UC runs are to the TE and 90% of their run fake actions are opposite

  — over zone y (@cmikesspinmove) December 20, 2024

  If your under center play-action fakes are usually to the weakside and your actual under center runs are usually to the strongside, you’re giving away your entire operation. You don’t think professional coaching staffs and players haven’t surmised this exact tell through a season’s worth of data? Seattle has also had just six straight dropbacks out of 47 UC passes, so the defense can essentially guess two things whenever the Seahawks go from under center:

  • Weakside play-action pass
  • Strongside run

  While this is less evidence-based, I believe the extremely pass-heavy nature of the Seahawks established early in the season has also hurt the PA game. Just because there’s no clear correlation between effectively running the ball and play action success doesn’t mean you can get away with running PA without running the ball at all. If defenses don’t believe you’re going to run the ball (especially out of certain looks), then why should they respect it?

  The Seahawks also use PA out of shotgun at about a 15% clip, which is substantially lower than the previous two seasons.

  While I will not pin everything on Ryan Grubb given the state of this offensive line—Scott Huff should probably get some more heat, too—he has made life harder for Geno Smith and the Seahawks offense as a whole with his predictability.

  We’re in Week 16, so unless there has been something saved up for this home stretch, these issues are not getting corrected this year. Should the Seahawks run more play action? In theory, yes. But they can’t run more play action without mixing up the looks and showing some commitment to a run game (not necessarily a better run game, but just running the ball in itself), otherwise the results will not improve.

• NFL Playoff Picture: The best and worst case scenarios for the Seahawks in Week 16

  Looking at the four scenarios for the Seahawks as they look to get past the Rams in the NFC West title race.

  It’s a tight finish in the NFC West between the Seattle Seahawks and Los Angeles Rams for the division title. The Arizona Cardinals are lurking at 7-7 but not in a great position for a miracle finish, whereas the 6-8 San Francisco 49ers could be eliminated from the playoffs this weekend.

  With the Seahawks throwing away their slender division lead last week, the Rams hold first place on the head-to-head tiebreaker despite having an identical 8-6 record. Not ideal!

  This week, the Seahawks host the 12-2 Minnesota Vikings while the Rams travel to New Jersey to take on the 4-10 New York Jets. Again, the odds do not look favorable for Seattle. But in the interest of completeness, let’s look at the four main scenarios from the Seahawks’ perspective. I’m not including ties because, well, they almost never happen and I don’t want to make things more convoluted.

  ---

  The best outcome: The Seahawks win (9-6) and Rams lose (8-7)

  Seattle can win the NFC West in Week 17.

  Seriously.

  Beat the Chicago Bears on Thursday and hope the Los Angeles Rams lose at home to the Arizona Cardinals and that would make the Seahawks’ NFC West lead unassailable. They’d be at least two games clear of their rivals and Week 18 becomes only meaningful for No. 3 vs. No. 4 seeding purposes.

  It doesn’t get any simpler than that.

  The next best outcome: The Seahawks (9-6) and Rams (9-6) win

  Week 17 is almost meaningless for both teams. Neither can be eliminated from the NFC West title and neither can clinch. If Seattle loses in Week 17 and the Rams win, the Seahawks can still win the division in Week 18 through the strength of victory tiebreaker. If Seattle wins in Week 17 and the Rams lose, Los Angeles can still get the head-to-head tiebreaker by sweeping the Seahawks in Week 18.

  However, if the Washington Commanders (9-5) slip up in the Wild Card race, the Seahawks could have an alternate path to the playoffs open up, so I wouldn’t just waste Week 17 just because of the divisional situation.

  The “not bad, but not great” outcome: The Seahawks (8-7) and Rams (8-7) lose

  Beside potentially putting the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers back in the division mix, this outcome is similar to if both the Seahawks and Rams win. Neither can be eliminated nor mathematically clinch the NFC West. It would create some possible three-way tie scenarios at the end of the season and those would not be kind to Seattle. The Wild Card would also be all but unattainable for the Seahawks.

  Another way to say this: A Rams loss would give Seattle one massive lifeline before it even kicks the Vikings game off.

  Incidentally, this is the only scenario of the four in which the San Francisco 49ers are not automatically eliminated from the division (and, in effect, the playoffs) regardless of their result against the Miami Dolphins.

  The worst outcome: The Seahawks lose (8-7) and the Rams (9-6) win

  The Seahawks could be mathematically eliminated from the division and the Wild Card in Week 17. Lose to the Bears while the Rams beat the Cardinals and that’s all, folks. Even a Week 17 win over the Bears would effectively need a Cardinals win over the Rams in order for the Seahawks to have a fighting chance in Week 18.

  ---

  Go Seahawks, go Jets, and just to be safe we should be pulling for the Philadelphia Eagles over the Commanders for the Wild Card option, as well as the Carolina Panthers to just about deliver the KO punch to the Cardinals.

• Mike Macdonald’s first year results in a home record Pete Carroll only did once

  It’s been a long, long time since the Seahawks provided their home fans with so few wins.

  Amidst a vibrant discussion on home field advantage for the Seattle Seahawks taking place this month, the team’s fate is already sealed as far as a winning record.

  They will finish either a 3-6 or 4-5 record at home, depending on the outcome against the Minnesota Vikings. Fans have seen only three wins at Lumen all year, and chances are they won’t get more.

  I went back 16 years, and Mike Macdonald’s first year as head coach has achieved a truly rare feat.

  Pete Carroll had a losing record at home exactly one time during his tenure. In 2021, the infamous mallet-finger season for Russell Wilson, the team was 3-5 at home.

  Prior to that?

  We travel all the way back to the days of Mike Holmgren. Seneca Wallace started eight games, and Brandon Mebane was new.

  This hasn’t happened to a regular Seahawks team since 2008, which was heavily injured and was only 2-6 on the road and at home. Fitting that this fate was sealed by the Green Bay Packers, whose last win in Seattle was that same season.

  Packers HC Matt LaFleur on Week 15 showdown with the Seahawks:
  
  “Going to Seattle is always a chore; I mean, that is a tough place to play…”
  
  Since 2012, Green Bay is 0-4 vs the Seahawks IN Seattle.
  
  GB’s last victory IN Seattle was all the way back on October 12th, 2008. pic.twitter.com/ahDvSRJO1A

  — Steezy A. Smith (@steezyasmith) December 11, 2024

  This is both a cause and effect to the whole “fans selling tickets” conversation taking place. How about win some home games and actually make it a tough place to play again?

  Not probably the start that Macdonald was hoping for, whose Baltimore Ravens were 6-2 at home last season.

  As for the man himself I have no commentary, other than to point out it does seem like he did a really good job preparing his team to play on the road. Put that alongside the obvious mastery of scheming against specific opposing offenses, and I’d say with confidence Macdonald has some areas of motivation and preparation under solid control, with a few areas in which to grow.